Iraq is entering a critical phase of its security transition after the United States announced the commencement of the final stage of its troop withdrawal from the country. The move, reported by Al Jazeera, follows a series of agreements that have gradually reduced the American military footprint since the 2003 invasion, leaving Iraqi authorities to assume full responsibility for internal stability.
Baghdad’s leadership has described the situation as a "high‑stakes balancing act," reflecting the challenges of maintaining order while managing the influence of armed groups that were once backed by foreign powers. Among these are Iran‑aligned militias that have become entrenched in the political and security apparatus, as well as remnants of the Islamic State that continue to conduct sporadic attacks in rural areas. The Iraqi government has pledged to strengthen its national army and police forces, but the capacity gap remains a concern for both domestic and regional observers.
The United States has emphasized that its withdrawal will be conducted in coordination with Iraqi officials, aiming to avoid a security vacuum. U.S. officials have highlighted ongoing intelligence cooperation and the provision of equipment to Iraqi forces as part of the transition plan. However, Al Jazeera notes that the precise timeline and the number of personnel remaining on the ground have not been disclosed, adding an element of uncertainty to the process.
Political analysts in Baghdad warn that the reduction of U.S. presence could embolden militia leaders who have previously leveraged American forces as a counterweight to Tehran’s sway. The Iraqi parliament is expected to debate legislation that would formalize the role of these groups within the national security framework, a move that could reshape the balance of power in the capital and beyond.
Security experts also point to the risk of an ISIS resurgence if the handover of responsibilities is not managed carefully. Although the extremist organization has lost most of its territorial holdings, it retains the ability to launch attacks, particularly in the north and western provinces. The Iraqi army, still in the process of modernizing its capabilities, will need to fill the operational gap left by departing U.S. units, which have provided air support, logistics, and training.
Regional actors are monitoring the development closely. Iran is likely to seek to expand its influence through allied militias, while neighboring Gulf states have expressed concern over the potential destabilization of Iraq’s borders. The United Nations has called for a coordinated international effort to support Iraq’s security sector during the transition, emphasizing the importance of preventing a relapse into widespread violence.
In the coming months, Iraq’s ability to manage the withdrawal will be tested by its capacity to integrate disparate armed factions into a cohesive national force, sustain counter‑terrorism operations, and maintain political stability. The outcome will have implications not only for Iraq’s internal security but also for broader regional dynamics, as the presence of foreign troops in the Middle East continues to evolve.
Reporting attribution: based on reporting by Al Jazeera — All News — original source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/29/iraq-begins-high-stakes-security-balancing-act-as-us-troops-withdraw?traffic_source=rss.